Now, I'm going to preface this by saying that in no way do I believe that the team I've chosen will win the division. They'll contend, they'll look real good right up to the playoffs, but they won't win the division, straight-up.
But a Wild Card is always possible, right Tampa Bay?
I'm talking about Tampa Bay's AL East Division-mates the Baltimore Orioles.
I know that the Orioles were one of the sexier picks at the beginning of this season to be a playoff team. With Derek Lee, Vlad Guerrero, and Mark Reynolds added to a solid core, how could they not be?
Well, we saw how not.
But I think that they'll be one of the hotter teams next season.
It starts with Buck Showalter. I considered choosing the Florida Marlins, but their managerial situation is all kinds of messed up. Jack McKeon doesn't know how to manage young players anymore. Hanley Ramirez was already a problem child and Jack playing infield in as punishment for getting blown out doesn't necessarily dampen the temper Ramirez seems to always have burning.
Showalter is solid. I think he's overrated because he worked for a certain network for a long time and seems to get a lot of "Look how good he is, we were right to have him as an analyst" type talk. But e's a solid manager and he deals with young players very well.
And that's something Baltimore has a decent amount of. The majority of their starting lineup is 28 or under this season. Adam Jones (finally) caught fire this season, and is numbers only project to go up. He'll easily finish this season with 30 homers and close to 100 RBI to match the fact that he's one of the rangiest centerfielders in the AL, if not the MLB.
Along with him, J.J. Hardy seems to have regained, or at least is somewhere around, his '07-'08 status as a shortstop with some contact and more pop. I'd almost say he's a Comeback Player of the Year, and he looks to continue playing well instead of burning out again.
Mark Reynolds is a question mark, whether he plays third or first. He's signed through 2012 and is doing what Reynolds do: hit home runs and strike out all the other times. He's taking up a chunk of cash while doing so. The thing is, I think that, though Chris Davis is struggling this season, he can become the ballplayer Texas once wanted him to be. His swing looks fine and he's gaining confidence by the day with Derek Lee not blocking his playing time. Additionally, the Orioles have Josh Bell and Blake Davis as interesting prospect options at third. Both are solid defensively and can hit a little (and by little, I mean above the .220 avg. Reynolds will finish the season with). With the cream of the third base potential free agent crop being Aramis Ramirez followed distantly by Casey Blake, Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez, the market is weak for teams looking to improve dramatically there. Reynolds being traded for what the Orioles will desperately need to contend next year, bullpen and back-end starting pitching help, Baltimore will dramatically increase their stock.
Their starting pitching will be fine. Mostly, injuries have kept what should be a maturing and dynamic staff from winning. The bullpen will definitely need some tweaking, but Kevin Gregg is a great pitcher and can be built around.
Brian Roberts is getting older, sure, but Robert Andino is looking like a slick little replacement. And, though Vlad is only signed for this year, I can see Baltimore signing him back as an affective DH. The guy is hitting .300 until he dies. That's just how he operates.
Overall, I definitely see the Orioles contending next year. They had some problems this year, some guys had some down years, but if they stay healthy, the adjustments made this year and the natural growth of their young core of players will produce a winner.
And by winner, I mean 2nd or (more likely) 3rd place in the AL East. But that's exciting, isn't it?
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