Most Overrated Trade Target of 2011

As much as Ryan Ludwick is underwhelming, I have to disagree with Frank in that I'm not sure many teams actually thinks he's good, which makes him, well, less overrated. In fact, I believe the most overrated player on the market is none other than Mariners lefty Erik Bedard. Now, you may look at his 3.00 ERA and 8.5 k's per 9 and say "come on, Joe, how can you say that?" The reason I say it is because if any team thinks they're getting that pitcher, they are going to be in for a rude awakening when Bedard hits the DL as soon as the pennant race heats up.

When healthy, there are not many more talented pitchers than Bedard, and often at the deadline, teams look for players to put them over the top. It's for this reason that I could see the Yankees, Red Sox, or Tigers blink and trade a prospect or two to Seattle for Bedard, who if healthy, would put any of those teams over the top. But it would be irresponsible for any team to expect anything from Bedard due to his propensity for injury.

Since the beginning of the 2006 season, Bedard has pitched 632 innings of 3.34 ERA ball, with 9.1 K/9 (639 K's) and a 131 ERA+ (which puts him 31% better than the league average pitcher over that time span). But also since the beginning of the 2006 season, Bedard has suffered from a strained oblique, a torn labrum, and a strained groin, before having to miss the entire 2010 season due to a shoulder injury.

As the Red Sox are most rumored to be interested in Bedard, it would greatly behoove the Mariners to unload him to the Northeast, but as teams with both eyes on a World Series championship may see Bedard as a difference maker, he is very unlikely to make such a difference, as he could fall down the stairs, or get hit by a line drive, or simply have his left arm fall off. As such, Erik Bedard is the most overrated trade target this summer.

First Topic: Overrated Player

First, I had this post in mind back when I assumed Colby Rasmus would be traded to a team that was looking for a win-now, immediate-impact, let's-set-the-world-on-fire ballplayer. But after seeing the trade that had him ending up in Toronto, I was fine with that. Rasmus still has a high ceiling and going to a team like Toronto (13 games out of first with outfielders the likes of Corey Patterson and Rajai Davis to support Jose Bautista makes sense. He'll become a pretty good player there I think and I like the move Toronto made (though they sure as hell need to find someone for third base. I think I Don't Know might be available.)

So after all that, I need to throw in my guy, the most overrated name I've been hearing in connection with the trade deadline, the guy that teams are "reportedly inquiring about" as so many reporters have typed 50,000 times in the past two weeks.

It's Ryan Ludwick. Obviously, that's an older picture of him, but whatever, you don't need to know what he's been doing in San Diego because it largely doesn't matter. A lot of teams have been linked to him (Atlanta, Cincy, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston sometimes) but the truth is that he isn't the dynamic player he was a few years ago or even last year.

His stats have fallen and are getting worse by the day. As I write this, he stands at .238, 11 and 62. The 62 RBI is great, of course, and 11 homers isn't bad and seemingly could double into his total from two years ago, but the fact is, teams seem to think that they're dealing with the .299, 37, 113 Ludwick of 2008, probably from when that picture was taken.

The truth is, Ludwick is down and getting to be out. You could argue his homer total is down because he plays at the Yellowstone-sized Petco Park, but his home run totals are nearly identical in games away from Petco as they are for games in Petco. Additionally, his home run totals have fallen pretty steadily over the years, starting with his breakout 37 in 2008, to 22 in 2009, to 17 in 2010. His OPS has too, going .966, .775, .743 respectively, with this year standing at .675.

On top of everything, he is getting ice-cold at a time when teams are thinking of picking him up for pennant run. His average is .165 in the past 21 games and he's hit a grand total of 3 home runs since May ended. And though Ludwick's glove isn't bad, he's still a left fielder and teams don't exactly trade to fortify their outfield defense around this time (see Matt Holliday, 2009).

So there it is, your most overrated player at 2011's deadline: Ryan Ludwick. I like the guy, but as scouts say, "He got old quick."

FIRST TOPIC EVER

Here we go.

With the MLB trade deadline coming up and rumors flying, make the case for the most overrated player being talked about or actually traded at the deadline.