Thursday, July 28, 2011

Most Overrated Trade Target of 2011


As much as Ryan Ludwick is underwhelming, I have to disagree with Frank in that I'm not sure many teams actually thinks he's good, which makes him, well, less overrated. In fact, I believe the most overrated player on the market is none other than Mariners lefty Erik Bedard. Now, you may look at his 3.00 ERA and 8.5 k's per 9 and say "come on, Joe, how can you say that?" The reason I say it is because if any team thinks they're getting that pitcher, they are going to be in for a rude awakening when Bedard hits the DL as soon as the pennant race heats up.

When healthy, there are not many more talented pitchers than Bedard, and often at the deadline, teams look for players to put them over the top. It's for this reason that I could see the Yankees, Red Sox, or Tigers blink and trade a prospect or two to Seattle for Bedard, who if healthy, would put any of those teams over the top. But it would be irresponsible for any team to expect anything from Bedard due to his propensity for injury.

Since the beginning of the 2006 season, Bedard has pitched 632 innings of 3.34 ERA ball, with 9.1 K/9 (639 K's) and a 131 ERA+ (which puts him 31% better than the league average pitcher over that time span). But also since the beginning of the 2006 season, Bedard has suffered from a strained oblique, a torn labrum, and a strained groin, before having to miss the entire 2010 season due to a shoulder injury.

As the Red Sox are most rumored to be interested in Bedard, it would greatly behoove the Mariners to unload him to the Northeast, but as teams with both eyes on a World Series championship may see Bedard as a difference maker, he is very unlikely to make such a difference, as he could fall down the stairs, or get hit by a line drive, or simply have his left arm fall off. As such, Erik Bedard is the most overrated trade target this summer.

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